Potential BTC value on today's buying power (math experiment)
Today, i want to do a little math to calculate where we are in the crypto space (based on bitcoin). There are 43 million wallets. Source: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=all Some people will have multiple wallets, but on the other side, some people will have no own wallet (*). (*) coins on exchange combi wallets. Coinbase has 30 million users (maybe a few more now). Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-added-8-million-new-users-in-the-past-year Binance has round about 14 million users (maybe a few more now). Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFjE-KYbXU8 (start at minute 25) Many users use multiple exchanges! I did not found any exchange with more than 30 million users. ( if you know one, please tell us and include a source link ) On the world live now 7,75 billion people! Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weltbev%C3%B6lkerung (german) 35% of the people are older than 64 years or younger than 15 years. Source: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/71063/umfrage/weltbevoelkerung-nach-alter-und-regionen/ (german) This leads to 65% potential users, which would be at round about 5 billion people. Now we must accept, no system will be used by "all" potential people... Let´s calc only with 20% of the 65% potential of all the people on planet earth! Now we get a good round 1 billion! Now we just say, each wallet is one single user (as i said many users own multiple wallets, many users own none wallet). ( based on this calculation ) ___43,000,000 BTC users exists today! 1,000,000,000 BTC users are possible in the future! After all BTC are mined, each BTC user could own only 0.021 BTC (average) Today's wealth average per person is at (independent from who you live, just world average!) 70,849 USD ... but only 7,087 USD (median) ... so, let´s use the lower value. Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_L%C3%A4nder_nach_Verm%C3%B6gen_pro_Kopf (german) If 0.021 BTC represents 7,087 USD... This leads us to a potential BTC value of 337,476 USD (at todays buying power) 3 million, if we use the average wealth and not the median but no person would put all there wealth in bitcoin, so the median value should be better for this calculation. This doesn't mean prices like 1 million / BTC is not possible. It is! And based on todays buying power, not only through inflation. Why? We will see more bubble phases, which get BTC to absurd values! The point is - even if BTC "only" reach roundabout 340,000 USD at today's buying power, this is huge! So go on and stack sats - but this is not a financial advice - only my thoughts Please share your opinion and thanks for your attention.
Am I missing something here? Even the mining cost of each transaction is INSANE with BTC.
I've never looked at this way, but I was watching this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?V=eq96l30sk6i and looked up this article: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywbbpm/bitcoin-mining-electricity-consumption-ethereum-energy-climate-change They're talking about the energy used by bitcoin miners. If you take the articles numbers from Nov 2017, each BTC transaction used aprox 215 kilowatt-hours to mine. According to this: https://www.rapidtables.com/calc/electric/energy-cost-calculator.html that translated into roughly $25.80 PER TRANSACTION depending on where you're located. That's not a transaction fee, that's what the miner paid in electricity to mine your transaction. That's insane. From my understanding, with all else equal, there is no difference in mining power required between 1mb blocks and 32mb blocks. Increasing the block size means that dollar figure per TX goes down by the factor you increase it (+ whatever additional bandwidth costs you have for larger blocks which is negligible anyway). With a 32mb block size its 25.80/32 = $0.80625/tx, which is still high, but scale just scale further. It seems so simple, am I missing something???...
Currency, in general, is a medium for exchange that is based on promises for what that currency is worth. Commonly called "money." Cryptocurrency is not centrally controlled or regulated and their value is based on the supply and demand; there are built-in limits for how much can exist (potentially curbs devaluation), public logs of the transactions (blockchain) and the cryptography algorithm make it difficult to counterfeit. Maybe this old TechQuickie can explain it better. TL:dr an unregulated form of digital money
What is mining?
The most basic way to acquire a cryptocurrency is the same as acquiring money, in exchange for goods or services. The other way to get cryptocurrency is by mining, or solving increasingly difficult math problems in exchange for the cryptocurrency.
What does this have to do with GPU prices going up?
Crypto mining started on CPUs, but it didn't take long for people to realize that GPUs, especially the 'heavy duty' ones intended for gaming, are really good at it. The downside to GPU mining is heat and power consumption, this lead to mining systems designed for the task and eventually ASIC chips designed just for mining. As a cryptocurrency matures the math problems become very difficult, leading to pools of miners that share resources - this has also lead to some malware using infected systems for mining. An older currency like Bitcoin is well into that 'pooled specialty hardware' age, but newer options like Ethereum are aimed at GPUs; this increased demand means lower supply which means higher prices.
When will prices go back to normal?
Probably if or when the cost to mine via GPU exceeds expected returns. There are some specialized cards set to hit the market which may ease the demand on enthusiast GPUs. A word of warning, when this happens the market will be flooded with GPUs that were used for mining. The lower price may seem attractive, but these cards have been used in harsh conditions, 24/7 for who knows how long. Mining cards probably won't run very well/very long or they could work fine. You have to decide if it's worth the risk.
Should I start mining?
That is entirely up to you, but please take some time to educate yourself on the risks and benefits before you decide. Take a look at a profitability estimator to get an idea of what you might expect. These cryptocurrencies can be very, very volatile so don't quit your job expecting to strike it big with mining. Consider the cost of taxes, cooling, hardware, replacement hardware, and power. Mining is hard on hardware, the wear and tear means things like fans, the GPU(s), and other parts may die prematurely. Keeping your hardware cool (about 300W to cool 1000W) can lead to additional costs for hardware and power or reduced output. The cost of electricity may not seem like much, but it can be enough to make or break a mining setup. Take the time to figure out your ROI.
Should I sell my card?
Again, this is entirely up to you. There may be situations where selling a card and upgrading with the money can work out, but there are a lot of factors at play there, so do your research. Check selling sites: eBay, Craigslist, hardwareswap, LetGo, Facebook, and other (similar) selling sites for pricing. If shipping, package it how you bought it: clean, inside an anti-static bag, in a cardboard box with some padding. If meeting someone IRL, be careful, meet in a well-lit public place - some areas have exchange locations at places like police stations. I'd like to take a quick moment to thank Linux_PCMR for some insight, Graphics_Nerd for gathering some links for review, and the kind users that have replied to the number of posts on this subject.
I made an upgraded calculator for Hashflare, with reinvestments and difficulty increase!
Final EDIT: I have deactivated the links, too many people asking to edit. I recommend to everyone: buy Bitcoin, ETH or altcoins and hold them. As for me, I'm all in on RaiBlocks -> /RaiBlocks EDIT 1: Changed to consider an optional BTC price increase EDIT 2: Changed to consider mining fees, thanks for the suggestions EDIT 3: Optimize number of days using Goal Seek EDIT 4: Fixed bug in BTC price increase ( thanks madmax_br5 ) - you will now see bigger profits in the chart as it is using the projected increased value. EDIT 5: Added comparison with buying BTC now and selling later. 3-4x more in my case. EDIT 6: Overhaul after WandringAnteater 's suggestions. He also gave a more in depth explanation of the inputs and outputs here EDIT 7: Changed to reinvest from the payout and not balance; fallback to balance if payout < 0.01 TH/s equivalent. Thanks to u/erikkubica for reporting the bug. I saw many calculators around the sub (thanks for those by the way!), but they didn't consider the increases in difficulty, making for huge profits in the end. This one considers a constant increase in difficulty, compounded (specify the amount and period of increase). Reinvestment is also considered, you can specify the percentage and how long you wish to reinvest. There are still many things that are unpredictable, but this at least can give us a more conservative view on potential profits (no longer 10x, but about 3x in my case - at current BTC price). Maybe someone smarter than me can take this calculator and create automatic optimization on the reinvestment percentage and time. As of now you have to insert your values and wait about 5 seconds to re-calc. Any criticism is appreciated!
$KMD can often be used to buy into decentralized ICOs launched on our platform at a discounted price.
KMD can also be traded with absolute privacy using Komodo’s Jumblr tool
What is a privacy coin? Privacy coins implement various protocols to create a layer of privacy between blockchain transactions. This can be utilized to prevent blockchain traceability or provide different levels of privacy for data stored on the blockchain.
What is Jumblr? A decentralized cryptocurrency shuffler that allows your transactions to become incognito and protects them from being traced through a time or knapsack attack. It adds a privacy layer to your transactions because after your coins are Jumbled, an analysis of the amounts that went in or times that they came out is futile. This function is unique to Komodo and does not require third parties.
2. Security: a secure and robust consensus mechanism called delayed Proof of Work (dPoW) that protects your funds and our ecosystem. This unique technology uses a notarization process to create a backup of the entire Komodo blockchain onto the Bitcoin blockchain thereby increasing security and resilience. This happens roughly every ten minutes. The backups are then saved (notarized) onto the Bitcoin blockchain because it has the highest hashrate available. So even if Komodo suffered a devastating attack (which is extremely unlikely), the Komodo blockchain would merely revert to the most recently notarized copy of the chain. If Bitcoin loses superiority in terms of hashrate the dPOW mechanism can be switched to another blockchain on demand. Hence, Komodo is the most flexible platform to build on and one of the most secure.
What is hashrate? A proof of work blockchain needs a lot of calculations. Hashrate is the way it is measured. The amount of data hashed in a given time by a machine. It is a unit used to define the amount of calculations made by a machine. When you add all the machines together you have the hashrate for that blockchain (here’s a great chart that illustrates it). It's like a river of transactions and the broader and wider it is, the harder it is to manipulate it.
3. Freedom from middlemen: a decentralized exchange (DEX) called BarterDEX, with a fully working order book, powered by our world-class atomic swap technology. This reduces risk and transaction fees. Komodo’s atomic swaps work between Bitcoin protocol and ERC20 tokens which means we can support over 95% of all the tokens and coins in existence. Our decentralized exchange offers ‘liquidity power-ups’ which mean that you can place more than one buy order with the same funds (i.e. pick your top 5 coins and if any of them drop below 50% of their value you’ll buy it and cancel the other orders at the same time) which means your funds have a greater value! On top of all that, Komodo’s DEX has fast transaction speeds and super low transaction fees (0.15%). You can find live BarterDEX and Komodo Stats here: https://dexstats.info/index.php.
What are atomic swaps? Atomic swaps are a method of trading cryptocurrencies peer-to-peer, directly from one blockchain to another, without the need to trust a third-party. Here is a good article to read that will take you about 11 minutes ‘Atomic Swaps & Etomic Swaps, Explained in Plain English’ written by John Westbrook on Medium.
Why do YOU want an exchange to be decentralized? A centralized exchange is a third party and requires you to trust them with your funds. If they’re hacked you’re at risk of losing your funds. Centralized exchanges also require you to trade between pillars (i.e. BTC or USDT) which can involve higher transaction fees and a greater number of trades than necessary to swap the token you have for the one you want (i.e. DOGE sell to BTC to buy KMD is two trades when all you really want is DOGE to KMD).
4. Independence: decentralized ICO crowdfunding and scalability solutions for blockchain startups. You can think of a blockchain as a motorway and if you build a project on the same blockchain as other projects you will be impacted by how well the other drives behave, or by the motorway introducing tolls, or you could suffer from congestion (i.e. if you’re familiar with how crypto kitties caused ETH transaction fees to greatly increase and transaction speeds to slow down then you’ll understand multiple projects on one blockchain cause a scalability and independence problem ). Komodo offers parallel chains which mean a project or decentralized ICO is given its own chain which uses Komodo’s technology. This also solves the scalability issue because using the motorway analogy we can simply open more lanes for a project with a high amount of congestion. This is possible because of the dPOW notarisation. It allows projects to launch completely independent blockchains. Every independent blockchain created on Komodo Platform is automatically integrated into Komodo’s BarterDEX (DEX) which means they have instant access to liquidity for their token and their community can buy and trade immediately. If you compare this to a centralized exchange where projects are often met with a list of onerous demands and fees to be listed and risk being delisted then you’ll understand how important this is for any project especially smaller teams and decentralized apps (dAPPS).
5. Universal Wallet: the Agama Wallet is a universal secure, multi-coin wallet to store funds on and claim the 5% reward for your $KMD tokens. There is also a paper wallet available if you would prefer a cold storage option for those who want to maximize their security.
Hi everyone, I already have a wallet and everything and own some Bitcoin, but I would like to invest in mining Bitcoin small time. Maybe a few hundred for a rig, but I don't understand much. Anyone who can explain a lot, or a place where I can learn? Thanks!
What is dev team going do about Dogecoin's dangerously low hashrate?
First of all, let me apologize in advance if anything I say offends people or if I am not very nice. I am stating my opinions and don't like to sugar coat things. So it might be a bit jarring when compared to typical shibes you see around here. :) The last time I talked to the Dogecoin dev team, they were still trying to figure out what they wanted to do. And Jackson said that he would wait for 2 more halvings before considering merged mining. Well it's been 2 halvings, and the Dogecoin hashrate has behaved pretty much as I expected: LTC/DOGE hashrate comparison When I did my merged mining AMA, the dogecoin hashrate was about 1/2 of litecoin's hashrate. Today, the hashrate is 1/15 of litecoin's. Pretty much all the ASIC hashrate went to Litecoin, which I warned would happen. The Dogecoin's network security is in danger of being attacked. The top 3 Litecoin pools can easily pull off a 51% attack on the Dogecoin network. In a few weeks, the top 6 Litecoin pools can easily do it. A Scrypt ASIC farm can decide that it wants to have some fun. The Dogecoin network hashrate is about 45 ghash/s. So as an example, a 50 ghash/s farm can easily 51% it. Here's the earning ability of 50 ghash/s: litecoin mining calculator. It makes about $20500 per day. Let's say it takes about 30 minutes to pull off this attack... that's 30 Dogecoin confirmations. The attacker loses about $430 if he stops mining Litecoin for an hour. They could try to attack one of the top Dogecoin exchanges and try to steal 0.7 bitcoins to make it worth their time. Or they can double spend a lifetime subscription to Hustler.com, which is worth about $500. Or maybe they just don't like Dogecoin. And it only costs them $430! Dogecoin's network security is worth only $430. So what can you do? Honestly, I'm not sure merged mining is a viable option anymore, as it is becoming less and less viable with each passing day. Merged mining was the best option in April, when I first proposed it. At that time, if merged mining was implemented, almost every single Litecoin and Dogecoin pool will switch to do merged mining right away, because adding merged mining of Dogecoin would increase their mining output by 50%! Today, adding merged mining will only increase earnings by 6%. It's hard to say how many pools will switch. Some might think it's not worth their time. So it would take a big PR push to make this work. You're now left with a hard choice:
Don't do anything and hope
Do merged mining and try to convince all the pools to do it
Switch to another algorithm, and hope you can compete better against other GPU mined coins
Switch to proof of stake, and accept all the problems that come with that.
I've been working on a bot for crypto subs like /r/bitcoin for a few days now. Say hello to crypto_bot!
Hey guys, I've been working on crypto_bot for some time now. It provides a bunch of features that I hope will enhance your experience on /bitcoin (and any other subreddit). You can call it by mentioning it in a comment. I started working on this a few days ago. I'm constantly adding new features and will update this post when I do, but if you're interested I'll post all updates and some tips at /crypto_bot. Please either comment here, message me, or post there if you'd like to report a bug, request a feature, or offer feedback. There's also one hidden command :) You can call multiple commands in one comment. Here's a description of the commands you can use:
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin from an average of six of the top bitcoin exchanges (BTC-E, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Kraken, Cryptsy).
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin at seven exchanges (all of the ones listed above, plus LocalBitcoins). Also lists the average at the bottom.
Responds with the USD price of one bitcoin from [exchange] (any of the seven listed above).
Responds with the USD price of one litecoin, or the price of 1 doge and 1,000 doge.
crypto_bot litecoin|ltc [exchange]
Responds with the USD price of one litecoin from BTC-E, Bitfinex, Kraken, or Cryptsy.
Responds with the price of one bitcoin in the specified currency. Available currencies (symbols): JPY, CNY, SGD, HKD, CAD, NZD, AUD, CLP, GBP, DKK, SEK, ISK, CHF, BRL, EUR, RUB, PLN, THB, KRW, TWD.
crypto_bot [about|info] [arg]
Responds with a short description about [arg], as well as a link to an external site (Wikipedia, bitcoin.it, and some others) for more information. You can list multiple arguments and get a description for each. Available arguments: bitcoin, block chain, transaction, address, genesis, satoshi, mining, confirmation, coinbase, gox, cold wallet, hot wallet.
Responds with calculations and information about how a miner would do with the above data (mining calculator). The only required field is mining speed. Order of the arguments does not matter. Everything other than hashrate defaults to the following if not given: w (watts): 0, kwh ($kilowatt cost/hour): 0, difficulty: current network difficulty, hc$ (hardware cost): $0, $: current bitcoin price in usd (according to Coinbase), % (pool fee): 0. The calculator does not account for nor allow for input of the increase/decrease of difficulty over time, though I may add this feature soon. Working hashing speeds: h/s, kh/s, mh/s, gh/s, th/s, ph/s. Example usage: "crypto_bot calc 30th/s 10w .12kwh hc$55 1.5%" (to make it easier to remember, th/s can also be inputted as ths). This calls the bot with a hashrate of 30 th/s, electricity usage of 10w, a cost of $.12 kWh, a hardware cost of $55, and a pool fee of 1.5%.
crypto_bot number of btc <$amount to convert> [bp$bitcoin price]
Responds with the number of bitcoins you could buy with <$amount to convert>. If the comment specifies a [bp$bitcoin price], it calculates it with that exchange rate. Otherwise, it uses the rate from Coinbase. Example usage: "crypto_bot $419.29 bp$180.32" This calculates how many bitcoins you can buy if you have $419.29 and the bitcoin exchange rate is $180.32.
Signs a message in the bitcoin block chain in a transaction using OP_RETURN. The message must be less than 40 characters. Example usage: "SignMessage! "Post messages in the block chain!"" I hope you find this bot useful! Again, if you have any questions or comments, please either comment on this post, message me, or post on /crypto_bot. Update 1 (June 24, 2015, 17:35): The bot now responds with information if you post a link to a block, transaction, or address on Blockchain.info in a comment, even if you don't call it. For example, if I wrote "https://blockchain.info/block/0000000000000000126448be07fb1f82af19fbbf07dd7e07ebcd08d42c2660cb" in a comment, it would respond with information about block #362,377. Update 2 (July 10, 2015, 1:59): The bot now has two additional commands: "unconfirmed transactions" (or "unconfirmed tx") and "explain transaction delay" (or "explain tx delay"). The first command responds with the number of unconfirmed transactions, and the second explains why transactions might take extra time to confirm. Update 3 (August 24, 2015, 1:34): The bot now responds in a better way than before when transaction ids or addresses are posted. Before, it only responded when the transaction id or address was used in a link to Blockchain.info. Now the bot will respond whenever a transaction id or address is posted at all; a link to Blockchain.info is no longer necessary. Update 4 (August 27, 2015, 3:00): The bot can now sign messages in the Bitcoin block chain using OP_RETURN.
According to Quartz the [Bitmain Mongolia mine] employees estimated that each 1,000 [Bitmain] miners were equal to 10 petahashes per second in processing power. All 21,000 Bitcoin mining machines together would then be equal to 210 petahashes per second in processing power...
Going off that source would get you: 21,000 / 210 = 100 So taking the 8,705 PH/s number from ABC's hash rate peak of November 15 at 10pm, another estimate is somewhere around 8705 * 100 = 870,500 mining boxes in play at that 10pm peak. Four hundred thousand, eight hundred seventy thousand individual mining boxes seems like too large a number to me. I've clearly misunderstood something somewhere. Or incorrectly assumed something along the way. I'd be grateful to anybody for checking my calculations|assumptions and correcting me wherever I'm wrong.
What is the max supply of bitcoin private? There are like 16m bitcoin and 3m zcl in circulation.. So that's 2m bctp left to mine if it has 21m max supply right? I don't see the fees being able to cover the cost of mining the blocks in only a few years... So what's happening with mining and max supply and how will the chain continue to be profitable once the last btcp is mined. Edit the whitepaper says it will have 20.4m of 21m mined... So it will be the least profitable coin to mine in the history of coins? Edit 2. Entering some basic information into a zec Calc shows that for a 1080ti. Bctp would be required to be worth over $100,000 to make only 2.70$ a day based on the difficulty that zec has. The bctp is going to stall out in hashpower on release no question.
Looking at WhatToMine I guess it makes sense. https://whattomine.com/coins/161-sc-blake-2b?utf8=%E2%9C%93&hr=815.0&p=1200.0&fee=3.0&cost=0.13&hcost=1300.0&commit=Calculate Power cost per month / coins generated per month on an A3 makes the intrinsic value about .0022 USD. Anyone mining this on ASICs probably sees anything over .0022 as profit so they sell. I’ve bought and I hold. I’ll probably buy more if this dip continues. But I won’t be surprised if my held position goes down significantly more. At some point the current generation of ASICs will stop being profitable (when more of the same generation of ASICs come online or as sellers continue to book profits). Then the price should find some intrinsic support. ...until the next generation. Time. It will take time is all. Same calc for a bitcoin ASIC shows intrinsic value of around 9k. So at the very least the coin is a store of the value of the power cost to generate it. I think...
I just bought my first ASIC's, did I make a bad investment
I bought 2 brand New s9i's with psu's For 1600$ And I also Will build a sound Box And I need a router that supports my mobile broadband, this Will prob. Cost another 200$. So the calculating speed is going to be avarage 28TH. How long Will it take to get my money Back when I don't have any electricity Costs. Im just bit concerned because my friend told me that according to BitcoinWisdom site my profits Will cut half every month And that I Will only be making the amount what Bitcoin profitability calc. For the first month. So on few months after mining im making just a fraction of the profit And never going to be able to get the ROI? Can somebody help me and tell me a simple answer how this difficulty affects my New investment.
Any mining profitability calculator that lets you see past returns starting from specific past dates?
Most profitability calculators either assume current difficulty stays the same (we all know it doesn't) or estimates difficulty increase. What I want is a calculator that let's me set the start date as a date in the past, and shows me actual would-have-been returns based on actual difficulty from then till now? Why? Because I know an s9 would have been "profitable" 6, 12, 18 months ago, but much of that profit would have been from BTC price increase, and simply buying bitcoin 6-18 months ago would have been a great investment too. I want to compare profitability of mining and hodling vs same budget on buying coin and hodling, from various points in time. Alternatively, if no such web calc exists, if the math isn't too complicated I guess I could make one in spreadsheet form.
New people please read this. [upvote for visibility please]
I am seeing too many new people come and and getting confused. Litecoin wiki isn't the greatest when it comes to summing up things so I will try to do things as best as I can. I will attempt to explain from what I have learned and answer some questions. Hopefully people smarter than me will also chime in. I will keep this post updated as much as I can. Preface Litecoin is a type to electronic currency. It is just like Bitcoin but it there are differences. Difference explained here. If you are starting to mine now chances are that you have missed the Bitcoin mining train. If you really want your time and processing power to not go to waste you should mine LTC because the access to BTC from there is much easier. Mining. What is it? Let's get this straight. When making any financial commitment to this be prepared to do it with "throw away" money. Mining is all about the hashrate and is measured in KH/s (KiloHash/sec). Unlike the powerful ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) that are used to mine bitcoins using hashrates in the GH/s and even TH/s, litecoin mining has only been able to achieve at the very best MH/s. I think the highest I've seen is 130 MH/s so far. Which leads us to our next section. Mining Hardware While CPU mining is still a thing it is not as powerful as GPU mining. Your laptop might be able to get 1 a month. However, I encourage you to consult this list first. List of hardware comparison You will find the highest of processors can maybe pull 100 KH/s and if we put this into a litecoin mining calculator it doesn't give us much. Another reason why you don't want to mine with your CPU is pretty simple. You are going to destroy it. So this leaves us with GPUs. Over the past few months (and years) the HD 7950 has been the favourite because it drains less power and has a pretty good hashrate. But recently the introduction of the R9 290 (not the x) has changed the game a bit. People are getting 850 KH/s - 900 KH/s with that card. It's crazy. Should I mine? Honestly given the current difficulty you can make a solid rig for about $1100 with a hashrate of 1700 KH/s which would give you your investment back in about a month and a half. I am sure people out there can create something for much cheaper. Here is a good example of a setup as suggested by dystopiats PCPartPicker part list / Price breakdown by merchant / Benchmarks
Prices include shipping, taxes, and discounts when available.
Generated by PCPartPicker 2013-11-29 00:52 EST-0500
Estimated Hashrate (with GPU overclocking) : 1900 KH/s Hardware Fundamentals CPU - Do you need a powerful CPU? No but make sure it is a decent one. AMD CPUs are cheap to buy right now with tons of power. Feel free to use a Sempron or Celeron depending on what Motherboard you go with. RAM - Try to get at least 4 GB so as to not run into any trouble. Memory is cheap these days. I am saying 4 GB only because of Windoze. If you are plan to run this on Linux you can even get away with less memory. HDD Any good ol 7200 RPM hard drive will do. Make sure it is appropriate. No point in buying a 1TB hard drive. Since, this is a newbie's guide I assumed most won't know how to run linux, but incase you do you can get a USB flash drive and run linux from it thus removing the need for hard drive all toghether. (thanks dystopiats) GPU - Consult the list of hardware of hardware I posted above. Make sure you consider the KH/s/W ratio. To me the 290 is the best option but you can skimp down to 7950 if you like. PSU - THIS IS BLOODY IMPORTANT. Most modern GPUs are power hungry so please make sure you are well within the limits of your power consumption. MOTHERBOARD - Ok, so a pretty popular board right now is Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD3 and the ASRock 970 Extreme4. Some people are even going for Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD5 and even the mighty Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD7 because it has more PCI-E slots. 6 to be exact. However you may not need that much. With risers you can get more shoved into less. PCI-E RISERS - These are called risers. They come in x16 to x16 and x1 to x16 connections. Here is the general rule of thumb. This is very important. Always get a POWERED riser otherwise you will burn a hole in your MoBo. A powered rise as a molex connector so that additional power from PSU can be supplied. When it comes to hardware I've provided the most basic knowledge you need. Also, take a look at cryptobader's website. This is very helpful. Please visit the mining section of Litecoin Forums and the litecoinmining subreddit for more indepth info. Mining Software Now that you have assembled your hardware now you need to get into a pool. But before you do that you need a mining software. There are many different ones but the one that is most popular is cgminer. Download it and make sure you read the README. It is a very robust piece of software. Please read this if you want to know more. (thanks BalzOnYer4Head) Mining Pools Now that your hardware and software is ready. I know nothing about solo mining other than the fact that you have to be very lucky and respectable amount of hashing power to decrypt a block. So it is better to join pools. I have been pool hopping for a bit and really liked give-me-coin previously known to the community as give-me-ltc. They have a nice mobile app and 0% pool fees. This is really a personal preference. Take a look at this list and try some yourself. How do I connect to a pool? Most pools will give you a tutorial on how to but the basics are as follows:
Signup for a pool
Create a worker for your account. Usually one worker per rig (Yes people have multiple rigs) is generally a good idea.
Create a .run file. Open up notepad and type cgminer.exe -o (address_to_the_miningpool:port_number) -u (yourusername.workername) -p (your_worker_password_if_you_made_one). Then File>Save As>runcgminer.run (Make sure the drop down is set to "All Files" and .txt document.) and save in the same folder as cgminer. That's it.
Double click on runcgminer.run (or whatever you named it) and have fun mining.
Mining Profitability This game is not easy. If it was, practically everyone would be doing it. This is strictly a numbers game and there are calculations available that can help you determine your risk on your investments. 4 variables you need to consider when you are starting to mine: Hardware cost: The cost of your physical hardware to run this whole operation. Power: Measured in $/KwH is also known as the operating cost. Difficulty rate: To put it in layman's terms the increase in difficulty is inversely proportional to amount of coin you can mine. The harder the difficulty the harder it is to mine coin. Right now difficulty is rising at about 18% per 3 days. This can and will change since all you miners are soon going to jump on the band wagon. Your sanity: I am not going to tell you to keep calm and chive on because quiet frankly that is stupid. What I will tell you not to get too carried away. You will pull you hair out. Seriously. Next thing you will need is a simple tool. A mining profitability calculator. I have two favourite ones. coinwarz I like this one cause it is simple. The fields are self explanatory. Try it. bitcoinwisdom I like this one because it is a more real life scenario calculator and more complicated one (not really). It also takes increasing difficulty into account. Please note: This is the absolute basic info you need. If you have more questions feel free to ask and or google it! More Below.
bit_by_bit's mining-cost analysis is wrong - here's mine
bit_by_bit publishes a daily mining-cost-per-coin watch. Though his work is thorough and commendable, it is unfortunately incorrect, and his conclusions naive. I'm sure he has misled people on this board, so I'm here to set the record straight. Roughly using bit_by_bit's assumptions:
difficulty increase is (probably) impossible to predict
I'm 100% sure your miner would not arrive and be switched on today
Given those two huge, highly variable (and unpredictable) factors, trying to work out a cost-per-coin is ... more-or-less impossible. It's simply enough to assume that mining is extremely unprofitable at the moment and (probably) a very poor investment. Here are some examples of variability:
Cointerra TerraMiner IV
cost per coin
0% difficulty increase
20% difficulty increase
15% difficulty, but starting at 30bn difficulty
How are these numbers so different from bit_by_bits?
His calculations do not factor in an exponential difficulty increase. Instead, he says (in his maths) : "if the bitcoin network were composed of the miners here, and no extra miners are added/removed (i.e. difficulty remains the same) what would those miners (on average) achieve as a cost per coin over six months."
The problem with these numbers is
The percentage of miners he uses to compose the network is unknowable, and as you see above, miner performance varies greatly. I'm quite sure that huge operations custom manufacture their machines and never sell them. Their performance is unknown. (an unknowable unknown)
The makeup of the mining network in the future is unknowable, and difficulty will undoubtedly increase, but we can't know by how much. It has previously plateaued. Will it do the same? nobody knows.
They assume the very latest miners, shipped immediately. Historically, new miners are not shipped on time. It's been suggested that the manufacturers keep them and do highly profitable day-zero mining with them.
Also, to suggest that it is possible to predict market movements (and depth) is naive as it asserts that demand is constant, and that supply is the major, or key, factor. This is highly unlikely to be the case.
Let's talk about mining's effect on bitcoin price or, first should we talk about the effect of the price of bitcoin on the mining industry?
The two are intimately linked chicken-and-egg in a feedback loop. For a manufacturer to decide to make a rig, they need to design chips, get industry contacts, produce things (in china), make sure they work, then ship. They also need to get orders and decide if they are able to get the whole project in time for market. These projects are multi-month/year, and I've heard success is largely decided by who you know in china (china's pretty busy already). There is some kind of lag. Investors also pre-order, and must take a wild guess at future conditions with no guarantee whatsoever. At times like now, where mining is so unprofitable, which miners are actually selling coins (at a loss)? Large operations have large overheads, but to sell now, when the price might rise by 10x again would be idiotic. So, really this "supply" aspect of the supply-demand equation is very difficult to get a decent hold on, though I would love somebody to attempt it as a PHD. The blockchain should provide some answers. The other side of it (what miners will be produced) is also difficult to know. It could be that right now (with an unprofitable industry, and miners actually being quite close to desktop PC chip-size - i.e. as fast as humans can make them) no miners are in the pipe-line. This could (in crazy theory) lead to a zero difficulty increase for the lucky new owners of the above rigs. In that case, bit_by_bit's numbers would be spot on. Unfortunately, it's absolutely unknowable.
So... why do people buy miners now?
Quite simply, getting your head around an exponential anything is hard. The exponential difficulty increase is a motherfucker. But it's good for bitcoin (it protects our network from meddlers). Also, you could gamble that mining difficulty has to slow down... surely...
In my experience, looking at price charts is far more informative about future market movements. But, whilst I've got the microphone, I would remind newbies not to trade their coins.
$0.15 (varies quite a bit from country-to country, like 0.7 canada to 0.2 UK?)
price per BTC
I got these numbers off bit_by_bit. I don't care about the details. My argument is that it's not an answerable question. Result:
2252/600 = 3.75 BTC
7446/3.75 = $1985
Please, if I've made a mistake, let me know and I'll send bit_by_bit some flowers.
"Why are you just posting stuff directly against another user: that's not cool"
Well, it's whatever motivates you eh? I just go wound up by our discussions. But, I'm quite sure there are people on this board who don't know this stuff, so ... it's probably beneficial. Have fun EDIT: Ok, so I genuinely thought that I had made a fact-based post. Er, I added a few comments that I thought were funny, but I guess that wasn't a great idea. I removed one of my comments myself, but it's true that the moderators were in touch..... And - to bit_by_bit, I am sorry, because some of the things I said were above and beyond "spirited discussion". I absolutely agree that polite conduct is the way forward, and my initial "hang on a minute" reply to him was nice. But, I do have to admit that this subject has wound me up a fair amount. I genuinely believe that he's made a quite serious mistake - but I am happy to be proved wrong. Right now - I just want to get to the bottom of this. More Edit:
I am a miner
I didn't want to add this before, because I'm sure it (incorrectly) gives my argument more weight. But I need you to understand that bitcoin difficulty is a total motherfucker. I pre-ordered a BFL single for 11BTC in May 2013. The difficulty was about 4 million, and I worked out I'd make 30BTC/day at those conditions. It arrived at around 30 million difficulty, and I think now we're 18 billion. I've made about 0.7 BTC mining, and It's on the limit of believability that I'll make 1BTC before I throw it in the bin. I have a suspicion that it will be useful in the future for some altcoin/blockchain like thing. Also, I got free heating (which was the whole reason I discovered bitcoin in the first place!) Horrific loss. I think it makes about $1 more than it costs in electricity to run (at current price......) This whole post is not a "bitter miner" but somebody who has experienced bitcoin's exponential difficulty First Hand. Honestly, it is unbelievable. I genuinely think that the guy that does the profitability calculator deliberately does not explain what the 'profitability decline per year' is ... because he knows it will adversely harm bitcoin and the manufacture of miners. Even More EDIT:
Am I sure I've got the difficulty increase thing right?
So, I've made a spreadsheet thing to see if the 0.0022 difficulty thing is right. It is. All this table tells you is that in order to calculate 15% difficulty increase, you need to use a number LIKE 0.0022 in the 'profitability decline per year' box, and not 0.98 (which bit_by_bit calculated). I've sanity checked my numbers against the 'profitability calculator' and they don't quite line up, but they're close enough. The difficulty is not the same either, but it's in the same region. I don't know why. Also, the months aren't exact fortnights, so they don't line up. These are details. This proves my above workings to my satisfaction.
what is this horrible data?
It shows how much BTC your miner earns each 2 weeks (average difficulty change period). The last 2 rows (calc:) are from the profitability calculator website (and so are right). My attempt is on the left. Fortnight 13 is 6 months. Oh, this graph uses 14.07% difficulty.
BTC earned accumulated
calculator says BTC
2 bold numbers. 1 is approximately the 3.75 coins that gives you $1900 / coin whatever. 2 is the "profitability decline per year" as a tiny number. The pro tool comes up with 0.01095125 and I got 0.02257 but I don't care - it's close enough. My whole point is that these numbers are totally unworkably all over the place. You can't calculate them meaningfully.
I CANNOT BELIEVE the amount of effort that I have had to go to in order to show you that you made a minor mistake. (at time of writing you still deny it). There is no doubt in my mind now that I was right in the first place. Your calculations do not include a significant difficulty increase. I wish you well.
Clearing up some misconceptions (including my own) [WARNING: LONG, MATH]
I've been reviewing NAV's code for the past couple months in my spare time and have seen a few things pass for granted which I had assumed were edicts from the NAV team, but as it turns out, they were not. I'll just cover them in sections below. This is going to get long, and hopefully you like math. I'm sorry, in advance.
Coins do not gain weight with age
tldr; section title This is the big one, and the reason I wanted to review NAV's code in the first place. I had been treating this unofficial medium article like it was the bible, and it mentions that coins are weighted with age and size. No other documentation I could find indicated any differently (honestly, there's not really other documentation, in the first place) and so, having not finished looking into the code, I presumed that was simply true. It is not, however. I'm not even sure where this idea came from, besides that article, because no NAV team announcements I've seen have said this, but maybe I'm just not looking back far enough.
So how DOES it work?
tldr; values are hashed together and compared against a target. That target is adjusted based only on how many NAV are staking For those who haven't looked into how NAV picks the next group of staking coins (like I hadn't), the way it works is that a bunch of publicly available values (such as the time of the block you want to make, the time and hash of the transaction that represents your coinstake, and a few others) are hashed twice through SHA256 to create a random number. The actual values input are less important, what is important for NAV's purposes is that they are available to everyone, reasonably unique, and can be verified by other nodes on the blockchain. The output is, mathematically speaking, reproducible, but also completely random. This value is then checked against a target value that changes based on how fast the network is making blocks. If the network is making blocks around once every three seconds? The target value gets harder (smaller). If the network is making blocks around once every minute? The target value gets easier (larger). The target value just gets adjusted until the network is sitting comfortably at 30 second blocks. So far this is the same way Bitcoin keeps their block time consistent. However, PoS currencies then usually make an adjustment to that target value to increase your chances to win. In NAV's case, they multiply the target value by the number of coins you are staking. This means that a group of 1000 coins is 1000 times more likely to stake than a group of 1 coin. To use more accessible numbers, since the values NAV is using are huge, this would be like saying the base odds are that you have to roll a 2 or below on a 100-sided die to win the coinstake. For one roll, you have a 2% chance. For two rolls, you have a 3.95% chance, for three rolls you have a 5.88% chance, for ten you have a 18.29% chance. For n rolls, a 1 - (98^n)/(100^n) chance. To simplify this somewhat, and encourage larger groups, NAV simply says that if you have 10 coins, your chances are 10 * 2%, or 20%. It's a bit more, but it's close. It's worth noting that, using this system, if you have 50 coins, you have a 100% chance to win every roll, whereas pure single-roll odds only give you a 63.58% chance. The reason this isn't really a problem is that, in this example, there would only be 50 coins in existence, and you probably don't even have access to half of them. Additionally, if you are winning too quickly, NAV will start handing you a 200 sided die, then a 400 sided die, until you are only winning one in 30 -- and this is assuming you're the only one playing. With a table of people, you will get a larger die until only one of you is winning one roll in 30.
tldr; if coins gained weight with age it might be an actual security concern. This way is not The problem with Proof of Stake Age (PoSA) is that, if implemented poorly, it can create opportunities for very cheap attacks. You may have heard of a 51% attack (or majority attack) before. This is where any single entity in the Bitcoin network gains more than 50% of the hashing power. At 51% the chances of them mounting a successful network control attack are now greater than half, which presents a potential danger to the network.
tldr; you need lots of fancy computers that you get to keep after You need a lot of hashing power, which means a lot of computers, which means a lot of financial capital. Or, you need to combine with another organization or pool to combine your hashing power. This was actually a concern once in Bitcoin, but fortunately was resolved to no ill-effect, and ghash.io agreed to cut down their processing. In a PoW system, however, after you have executed your attack, you still have all of your computers, and can use them for something else. The financial capital you have invested is kept, and you never had to invest a single penny into the coin.
tldr; you need lots of coins that you probably spent a lot of money on, which are probably worth very little after In PoS currencies, a 51% attack is still possible, but in this case you would need to have more than half of the staking coins. As of a few days ago, the network weight was hovering around ~18-22 million NAV, so for NAV, you would need ~10-12 million coins to have the requisite 51% of coins. The base assumption for a PoS currency, however, is that, once you have that many coins, you're pretty invested in the network, and it is directly detrimental to you to attempt to attack it. When you execute your attack, you will likely greatly damage trust in the coin, and lose a large portion of your investment. At least, this is the theory.
tldr; you need a little bit of money and a lot of time You just need to wait. The most simplistic form of PoSA is in the form: adjusted_target = coins * time * base_target. If left uncapped, the time adjustment can allow a single coin stake to outweigh the entire network. Even with a cap of three months (for a total of 7776000 age-weight), you could use a mere 797 individual 0.01 NAV stakes (7.97 NAV total) to outweigh the combined base weight of all 62 million NAV in existence. You want good actors to have the most weight on the network, but in a PoSA currency, good actors are constantly losing their weight when their time resets, whereas bad actors can get more weight for doing nothing.
tldr; you need a little bit of money and to somehow create a bunch of coins with the same hashing window There are some currencies, such as VeriCoin, which have attempted to address this in novel ways, using what they call Proof of Stake Time. They create an ideal window during which your coins gain weight, but after which they return to base levels. This should theoretically encourage people to keep a server running, so they can always catch that window when it happens, which is partially randomized (to prevent someone from simply making a bunch of 0.01 coinstakes at the same time and just waiting for the window). I'm not sure how battle-tested this is, and I can think of a few potential vectors for attack that might exist, depending on implementation, but it does present an interesting and promising approach to the problem of how to encourage everyone on the network to participate, instead of just large stake holders with good odds.
So how likely is it for me to actually get a stake with ___ NAV
tldr; at current network weights it's likely that 1000 NAV will stake around once a week, and 1 NAV will stake once every 17 years. Since NAV is neither PoSA nor PoST (which I would stress isn't a bad thing, because pure PoS is comparatively simple and has known -- and addressed -- vectors of attack. It's also not necessarily a good thing; it's mostly just a thing), you're basically just as likely to stake today as you are tomorrow. Theoretically, every second should present a new opportunity to win a stake, but in practice this ends up not quite working out because there are other people on the network. Every time you accept a new block, you cut off all of the seconds before it forever. In practice, it's probably easiest to just look at the total weight of the network, and your weight, and extrapolate from there. We'll take for granted that NAV will have 30 second block times for this calculation. If you've got Python you can follow along:
>>> # 2 blocks/min * 60 min/hr * 24 hday * 365 days/year ... TOTAL_STAKES_IN_YEAR = 1051200 >>> # 60 sec/min * 60 min/hr * 24 hday * 365 day/yr ... SECONDS_IN_YEAR = 31536000 >>> # the number of coins you are staking ... stake = 1.0 >>> # The total number of coins on the network ... network_weight = 18701284.96584108 >>> my_stakes_per_year = (stake / network_weight) * TOTAL_STAKES_IN_YEAR 0.05621004128433283 >>> seconds_between_stakes = SECONDS_IN_YEAR / my_stakes_per_year 561038548.9752324
For those keeping track, this means that a 1 NAV stake is expected to take approximately 17.79 years to see a return in the current network (and, even then, only if you happen to be online at exactly the right time and nobody else stakes it first). Coincidentally, this is where that "expected time to stake" number comes from, which I've seen people asking about. I didn't actually look that one up in the code, so I'm not sure how their exact equation differs from mine, but I arrived at the exact same numbers they did, so it's likely similar (and probably more concise, because I am both a verbose writer and programmer, if you hadn't noticed). A 1000 NAV stake, using what I am calling network math for ease of reference, is expected to take around 6.49 days. My suspicion is that the reason this is sometimes more sporadic is that going by the target alone, and testing every second, a 1000 NAV stake should be getting a hit around once every 8 hours. I generated a file of 31536000 hashes (one for each second in the year), using the rules NAV uses to create hashes, and came up with the following table.:
*Assumes a target of 0x1a183258. I forget which block I pulled this from, but it's still around there. This unpacks to a value of: 0x0000000000001832580000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Calc wins : Mathematical calculation for how many hashes you should win, given the target Hash wins : This was pulled from the file with a year's worth of random hashes. N-M Wins : The number of wins network math says you should get Hash time : The average time between wins in the randomized file for the given NAV amount N-M time : The amount of time network math says you should wait between wins NAV : Calc wins : Hash wins : N-M wins : Hash time : N-M time 1 : 1.05 : 1 : 0.05 : ~1 year : 17.79 years 5 : 5.29 : 7 : 0.28 : 41.66 days : 3.56 years 10 : 10.59 : 10 : 0.56 : 34.27 days : 1.78 years 50 : 52.95 : 44 : 2.81 : 7.49 days : 129.87 days 100 : 105.89 : 107 : 5.62 : 3.42 days : 64.94 days 200 : 211.79 : 212 : 11.24 : 41.24 hours : 32.47 days 500 : 529.48 : 532 : 28.11 : 16.39 hours : 12.99 days 1000 : 1058.97 : 1050 : 56.21 : 8.33 hours : 6.49 days 2000 : 2117.93 : 2109 : 112.42 : 4.15 hours : 3.25 days 5000 : 5294.83 : 5326 : 281.05 : 98.62 minutes : 1.30 days 1000000 : 1058966.42 : 1058455 : 56210.04 : 29.79 seconds : 9.35 minutes
So obviously, a bit of disparity between the target-based times and the network calculated times. I would guess this has to do with other people on the network cutting you off from time values, and orphaned transactions where you did get the right value, but somebody else made a weightier one, but this is where my ability to really verify exactly what is happening starts dwindling. The disparity in N-M wins and Calc wins indicates that the target is currently too easy, and should adjust upwards, because right now coins on the network are 18.84 times weightier (calc wins column / n-m wins column) in hashing power than they should be based on the total network weight. But this is also where the whole "50 groups of 1 coin has a 63.58% chance to hit 2/100 whereas 1 group of 50 coins has a 100% chance to hit 100/100" thing comes into play. Since the network is largely broken up into groups of, on average, 1500 coins, we're actually looking at ~12467.52 groups of 1500 coins vying to win any given block. Given the target, a group of 1500 coins should have a 0.0050369...% chance to win any given coinstake ((target * 150000000000) / maximum_hash_value). This means that the chance that at least one of the 12467.52 staking groups will match for a given second is 1 - (1 - 0.000050369...)^12467.52 = 0.4663, or 46.63%. This places the actual amount that coins are overweight a bit closer to 13.989 times. (network should have ~1/30 chance (3.33...%) to win any given second, 46.63 / 3.33...% = 13.989). However, as mentioned, the software itself can get in the way of that, so this might just be due to a quirk of how the NAV software searches for matches, since it will abandon any seconds prior to the most recently accepted block. If you were cut off from 13 seconds in every 100, that would account for the weight disparity. In any case, I would probably trust the network math times over the pure math ones, if you're just trying to get a feel for how long you'll likely wait between stakes. What this really translates to is that, although a 1 NAV stake will probably have one second out of the year that will hash in it's favour, even running 24/7 you're likely to miss 17 of those before you actually have all the right conditions to win. Interestingly, I did manage to find one 9.99 NAV stake that won after only 5 days; so it can happen. But it's all still random.
How does this affect my staking rewards?
tldr; it doesn't Fortunately, NAV pays out the amount you should receive down to the second. Let's take this block at random. 1119.84133642 NAV coinstake, generated 3.82575342 NAV. The time of the previous transaction that created that coinstake was 1514741456 (see the "Raw Transaction" tab). The time of the current transaction is 1514741456. that's all we need to go on.
>>> SECONDS_IN_DAY = 86400 >>> DAYS_IN_YEAR = 365 >>> CENT = 1000000 # .01 NAV >>> COIN = 100000000 # 1.0 NAV >>> REWARD_PERCENT = 5 * CENT # will be 4 * CENT with community fund >>> # All NAV amounts in satoshi (navtoshi? natoshi?) ... stake = 111984133642 >>> # time of this stake ... stake_time = 1516896224 >>> # time of the transaction that made this stake >>> stake_prev_time = 1514741456 >>> # I'm not 100% positive why it converts to cent/seconds first, ... # but this is what the code does, so we need to as well if we ... # want to be accurate ... cent_seconds = (stake * (stake_time - stake_prev_time)) // CENT 241299827679 >>> # Now they undo the cent_seconds for some reason? I'm not sure. ... # This does, however, create a minimum coin stake for any given time. ... # 1 NAV, for instance, will not generate anything if it stakes until ... # it is exactly one day old (with a whopping 0.00013698 NAV). ... # The minimum NAV stake you can get a reward from if you get lucky ... # and stake at the end of two hours is 11 NAV. ... coin_day = ((cent_seconds * CENT) // COIN) // SECONDS_IN_DAY 27928 >>> stake_reward = (coin_day * REWARD_PERCENT) // DAYS_IN_YEAR 382575342
note: // is a floor division. For example, 3 / 2 = 1.5, 3 // 2 = 1 And we come out the other end with exactly 3.82575342 NAV. Those are the only variables that affect your payout for staking. You then also get whatever the fees happen to be. There's not any magic to it, and so far as I can tell there's also not a limit. If you legitimately wait those 17 years for your 1 NAV to stake, your eventual payout will be on the order of 0.84 NAV. Anyways, that's pretty much all there is to your payout; it's very direct.
So is it worth it for me to stake?
tldr; personal preference Honestly, this is entirely up to you. If you're in the "month or more" camp of coinstakers, it's probably not worth your while to be running 24/7 unless you're just really into securing the network (which, to be fair, I am all about that, so feel free). But with the blockchain at the small size it is right now, and if you're going to be using your computer anyways, it probably doesn't hurt to just run it in the background and see if you get lucky. Like pointed out, the actual amount you get is not affected by any of this. All that this means is that it is harder to predict exactly when you will get a stake. If you're concerned about financially supporting the staking, then NavTechServers has created this handy calculator to help out. From a mathematical standpoint, it's ironically much more likely for small coinstakers to get stakes if they are running 24/7, but from a financial standpoint, you're probably not getting enough to care to, so it's up to your preferences.
Cold Staking is not staking while offline
tldr; there is no magic that will allow blocks to be created without nodes on the network I've also seen a bit of confusion over what cold staking is likely to bring, and want to ensure people aren't upset when it does get rolled out. Specifically the misconception that staking with offline coins is the same thing as staking while offline. It is physically impossible to generate a block without something connected to the network, and you only get staking rewards once you have generated a block, because the blockchain doesn't really have the tools to tell who is online and participating beyond "who made this block." All that cold staking means is that the private keys to use your NAV to buy things or move their address are not on the server doing the staking. In general, this is accomplished via a smart contract and a secondary set of keys that is given permission to use your coins, but only for staking. If those keys are used for moving the a coin from one account to another, then the smart contract will flag it as an incorrect usage. This means that if someone hacks into your server, the only thing they could steal are the keys that permit them to stake your blocks. This is much easier to correct than someone stealing your private keys and moving your NAV to a separate address. Particl's overview of their cold staking system is a good read to get some baseline expectations. Most implementations of cold staking do open up the possibility to sign your coins over to someone else to stake, which opens up the entirely new 51% attack vector of asking people to just GIVE you their network weight. But given that I have just recently explained to you all why one person owning a majority of the coin staking weight on the network is dangerous, I shouldn't have to tell you why this would be a bad idea, right? RIGHT??
In any case, that's about it. Chances are the answer to the question "am I staking" is "yes", so long as the wallet tells you that it's staking. Unfortunately (but also fortunately), waiting longer only increases your chances insofar as you are trying more, but when you do eventually stake, you will be paid out based on how long you have waited, so there's not much lost. I could go into much more depth about all this but this was about as concise as I could get it while still showing most of my work. I'd also be happy to address any other questions that arise from this, and obviously if somebody who knows better finds anything wrong with any of the details here let me know. If you wanted to get into this more in-depth, I've created a Python script which explains some of the technical aspects more thoroughly (including how to unpack the compact target number into the full value being checked in the code), and allows you to get hands-on with real block values. You can download it here. Happy hodling, everybody.
I just invested almost $2k into a long-term BTC mining contract with Genesis. Have others tried out this service yet? What has your experience been? So far I'm getting 0.0045 BTC per day, which at $3k/BTC amounts to almost $5k per year. And if the price of BTC roughly keeps even with block halvings over time, and if the company stays in business, I should keep receiving about $5k per year in perpetuity. If the price of BTC goes up substantially, as it may well, even accounting for block halvings, I could stand to make quite a bit more from this $2k investment. Do others agree with my calcs here? What are the risks? Obviously, the company could fold or they could try something shady like changing the terms of the contract ex post. They are a legit company but never say never. In sum, I'm thinking about investing substantial sums in this approach to investing in the Bitcoin space and would like some feedback on issues I haven't thought about yet.
I had an idea about bitcoin mining or maybe we can call it reversing SHA256, that I'm not sure about it so I decide to ask your opinion. bitcoin mining has many steps and at the end, the header goes through two sha256 and the result compared with the target. the result of the first sha256 is 64 bytes that if we can find the collisions of this result for an available bitcoin we can mine another bitcoin. (one of my doubts) the header has 80 bytes that consist of 76 constant and 4 bytes (nonce) that change. the first 512 bits go first and the results use for the constant of the next block. if I am right, we have the answer for the first sha256 and the constants (H0...H15) for next message block of the first sha256 and the only variables are nonce that we could calc through step by step reverse of sha256 that I will illustrate after if all of this nonsense be true.
I tried to estimate how much money are invested in vertcoin mining. Let's take one of the most efficient mining card nvidia gtx 1070 and at first assume that the whole network is hashing with it. The nvidia gtx 1070 has according to https://www.nicehash.com/?p=calc 39.5MH for Lyra2REv2. The total network hashrate of vertcoin is 300GH, that means ≈7600 cards are needed. One gtx 1070 cost 400$ 3M $. This number can be multiplied by x1.5..2, because it is too conservative to assume that all network is hashing with the latest hardware. Then we are coming to ≈5M $. It 25% of the market cap. It seems somehow too much (maybe we are little bit undervalued at the moment :). I believe bitcoin mining investment is below 10%. Edit1 Is this estimation correct or I'm missing something because of merged mining? edit2 I'll do the math for bitcoin - S9 with 14TH for 3000$. Total BTC hashrate is 6.2 exahash 440k S9 are needed 1.3bn $. Let's x2 because not all miners are so efficient 2.6bn $. It is only ≈5% of the market cap. It shows that people are investing/accumulating VTC.
Question - Formula for bitcoin mining profitability that factors increasing difficulty over time
Hi guys, I'm making some basic trackers in Google Sheets for my cloud mining earnings. A profitability calc that factors in cloud mining fees and, ideally - difficulty increases. My question is what is this formula, and what data does it need - to modify Bitcoin produced over the next 12 months assuming that the difficulty steadily increases at a rate comparable to the past 12 months (~478% / ~1.3% daily). What is the formula that allows for a sliding scale over time? Say I was trying to figure out where 7.73TH/s would get me at: D1 W1 M1 M2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Y1 Any help is much appreciated, cheers.
I understand that BC mining isn't exactly lucrative when done on a small scale, but I do have a more practical question. It seems that one of the biggest costs is A/C. Well I live in Northern Canada, and it sometimes gets to be -50 here in the winter. Would it be reasonable that profit, or ROI could be greatly increased by running a 6 month operation, by opening a window? edit: forgot to mention that we pay about 100-150 in heating per month; so I was thinking of a two birds one stone. The idea would be to invest maybe 2-5k in equipment, and even if I don't have to heat and don't mine a single BC, I would be saving about 800 a year in electricity due to no longer needing to heat. edit2: here's the calcs I came up with for this product https://www.amazon.ca/AntMiner-T9-11-5TH-0-126W-Bitcoin/dp/B01NCX6ZPO/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&qid=1485137997&sr=8-7&keywords=antminer http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculato?h=11500.00&p=1450.00&pc=0.09&pf=0.00&d=392963262344.37000000&r=12.50000000&er=927.60000000&hc=0.00 Total estimated profit : $1,348.33 USD: or about 1.8 years; however, add the about 800 CAD I spend on heating my place, this becomes about 1900 USD, or about 1.4 years (estimated). That'd be like buying a stock with a 75% dividend yield. Any thoughts? edit 3: forgot that I could only reasonably run this for 6-8 months out of the year, so approximately a 2 year ROI. Still, that's pretty damn good if you ask me, no?
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